A decade following the UK stumbled into a hasty public vote that divided the country and unleashed disorder, a caution emerges from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Policymakers and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the same might transpire with a referendum on a unified Ireland, triggering upheavals for which no one is prepared.
That conveys the caution from two prominent writers from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Structures Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a possibly contentious and seismic referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can arise suddenly and can build support very quickly," the commentator said. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our islands remains very unstable."
New Title Intends to Provoke Discussion
The team have studied the political, financial and societal arguments for any governmental shift in a publication, For and Against a United Ireland, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to encourage dialogue on the matter with a series of speaking events that will lead them to Westminster soon.
"What troubles everyone, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We do not want a national vote on a binary, vague proposition whose consequences have remained undefined because then you end up with an highly divided society where those defeated are not reconciled to losing and the people who have won are uncertain exactly what it is that they have won."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unity if it appears likely that a most voters would approve.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists say this point is imminent, and a group named Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions downplay the likelihood, making it uncertain if and when there might be a referendum.
Absence of Informed Dialogue
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unity has obscured the absence of serious debate, said McBride.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the idea but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has occurred in universities but very few politicians or campaigners seek to involve themselves even with the essentials. As an example, which kind of country might be preferred? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the volume, no writer endorses unification or the status quo. Each writes two pieces that strive for impartiality in detailing the argument for a unified Ireland and the case against, gathering financial and societal statistics, previous instances and constitutional models.
Arguments range over identity markers, duties, health services, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to educate and provoke dialogue.
"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there has not yet occurred a debate," said the writer. "Dialogue suggests an recognition of the idea that there could be valid points on either side."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate report they favour unity but refuse increased taxation or introducing a alternative symbol to recognise pro-UK communities' British identity.
"The Irish government must determine what the offer from nationalist groups is aside from just saying: 'We desire a united Ireland and we welcome you'," said the commentator.
Probability of Referendum
The journalist believes a referendum in his generation is likely and that it might occur abruptly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a poor or a negligent government minister who states: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have plausible, legitimate arguments, he stated. "Somebody will win on this issue and somebody will in the end lose but each side has has important lessons to acquire from the other's positions."
Request for Wider Dialogue
Westminster must engage with the discussion, urged O’Toole. "This is about Britain. It's a British issue as much as it is an Irish matter."
